President Donald Trump’s switch from kinetic to economic warfare with his blockade of Iran’s ships and ports is an attempt to end the conflict without a new US-Israeli onslaught.
The operation’s rationale is that if Iran can’t export its oil and import vital commodities, it will suffer such ruinous financial and humanitarian consequences that it will have no choice but to accept US terms to end the war.
This may be a sound bet. An economy already shattered by sanctions could quickly suffer critical food shortages, hyperinflation and a banking crisis. It would be a neat solution if Trump matched Iran’s bid to strangle the global economy by partially closing the Strait of Hormuz with his own decisive maritime maneuver.
But growing hopes of US officials, conservative editorial pages and analysts that the blockade could bring Iran to its knees rest on an assumption that has repeatedly led the US astray in the Middle East.
The strategy assumes that Iran will respond to the pressure in a way that Washington perceives as logical. Recent history, however, suggests that US adversaries – such as Iraq, Afghanistan, Russia and Libya – often do not act according to Western calculations of their own national interests.
The hope is that Iran’s leaders offer concessions to alleviate the blockade’s eventual extreme repercussions. The plan also hints at an unspoken hope that deteriorating economic conditions could set off new internal political dissent and test the regime’s grip. And in the long term, it plays into the obvious need of Iranian leaders to create economic growth to rebuild after a relentless US-Israeli bombing campaign.
But the idea that Iranian leaders will view the stakes in this way may be a leap.
Revolutionary authorities have already shown indifference to the suffering of their people with successive political crackdowns that have killed thousands, according to human rights groups and outside estimates. The regime’s survival despite the killing of many top leaders during the war has already shown its high tolerance for pain.
It’s possible that the US is underestimating its endurance again in what Iran’s leaders perceive as an existential battle. Reporting by CNN and other outlets suggests Trump believed the US-Israeli onslaught would end the war quickly – long before Iran was able to take actions such as closing down the strait.
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